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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

However the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still