Conflict-ravaged Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".