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China has sent its maritime law enforcement through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.