Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
